Former US President Donald Trump has sensationally claimed a proposed civilian nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia hinges on Riyadh first normalising its relationship with Israel. The revelation, made public by Trump on Thursday, adds a significant new dimension to the complex geopolitics of the Middle East.
Speaking publicly, Trump asserted that the multi-billion dollar power generation deal, which he insists would prohibit uranium enrichment by Saudi Arabia, is directly tied to the expansion of the Abraham Accords. These historic agreements, brokered during his presidency, saw several Arab nations establish diplomatic ties with Israel.
A Conditional Energy Future
“The Civil Nuclear Deal (There will be no enrichment of material!) being made between the United States Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia, which pertains only to non-military... has as a condition that Saudi Arabia normalise relations with Israel,” Trump stated. This condition, if confirmed by current US officials, would dramatically alter the timeline and political leverage of any future normalisation efforts.
Such a deal would see American companies, such as Westinghouse Electric, play a pivotal role in constructing Saudi Arabia’s first nuclear power plants. This could be a lucrative opportunity for US businesses, potentially worth hundreds of billions of Australian dollars, amidst fierce competition from Russian, Chinese, and South Korean rivals. However, the non-enrichment clause is crucial for Washington, addressing long-standing concerns about nuclear proliferation in a volatile region.
Abraham Accords — The Ultimate Carrot?
For years, Saudi Arabia has been urged by successive US administrations to join the Abraham Accords. While there have been encouraging signs and quiet diplomacy, a formal normalisation has remained elusive, largely due to Saudi demands concerning Palestinian statehood and other regional issues. Trump's disclosure suggests that a nuclear cooperation agreement, potentially worth an estimated $100 billion USD (approximately $150 billion AUD) over several decades, could be the ultimate incentive for Riyadh to overcome these hurdles.
The initial Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, normalised relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. These agreements were hailed as a significant diplomatic breakthrough, fostering new alliances and economic opportunities in the region. Bringing Saudi Arabia, a key regional power and custodian of Islam's holiest sites, into the fold would be a monumental achievement, dramatically altering the geopolitical landscape.
Washington's Delicate Balance
The Hill reported that the nuclear deal, even without the normalisation condition, has been a contentious issue within Washington. Critics are concerned about the precedent of a nuclear program in Saudi Arabia, irrespective of safeguards, due to the kingdom's human rights record and regional ambitions. However, proponents argue that allowing the US to be the primary partner would ensure the strongest possible non-proliferation standards compared to offers from other nations with less stringent oversight.
The Biden administration has reportedly continued discussions on both the nuclear cooperation and normalisation fronts, building on the groundwork laid by the previous administration. However, publicly linking the two in such an explicit manner by a former president and current presidential candidate adds a layer of political complexity. It forces the current administration to navigate an even more delicate diplomatic path as it seeks to advance American interests while managing regional sensitivities and domestic political pressures.
Ultimately, whether this grand bargain comes to fruition will depend on intricate negotiations between Riyadh, Washington, and Jerusalem, with significant implications for global energy markets, regional security, and the future of Middle Eastern diplomacy.
